Two Solo Miners Defy Astronomical Odds to Capture Full Block Rewards
On November 7, two independent miners using home-based equipment defied the odds by solo-mining two Bitcoin blocks within seven hours, collectively earning approximately $476,000. One miner, operating an AvalonQ rig with only about 80 TH/s of hashrate, struck a block—an event so improbable that statistical models suggest it should take centuries. The other miner achieved a similar feat shortly after. Both used the CKPool solo mining service, which took roughly a 2% fee for facilitating the rewards.
The Mathematics of a Miracle
Bitcoin’s total network hashrate currently hovers around 600 EH/s, meaning an 80 TH/s miner controls roughly 0.000013% of global capacity. In a solo mining setup, the probability of finding a block is proportional to that share. For the AvalonQ, the expected time to find a block is on the order of hundreds of years. Winning twice in a single day is a statistical anomaly that underscores the lottery-like nature of solo mining—and the allure that keeps small miners plugged in.
Implications for Decentralization and Mining Economics
While institutional mining farms dominate hashrate, solo mining victories highlight the permissionless, probabilistic design of Bitcoin’s proof-of-work. They also serve as a reminder that mining rewards remain accessible, however remotely, to individuals. For CKPool, which specializes in solo mining, the event is a marketing boon. For the broader industry, it reinforces that Bitcoin’s security model ultimately relies on a diverse set of participants, not just large pools.
- Hashrate distribution: Large pools still control the majority of blocks, but solo finds demonstrate that no single entity can fully exclude small players.
- Mining hardware: The AvalonQ’s efficiency and compact form factor make it suitable for home use, lowering the barrier to entry.
- Reward volatility: Solo miners face extreme variance—most earn nothing for years—but the potential for a full block reward (currently 3.125 BTC plus fees) is a powerful incentive.
Looking Ahead
As Bitcoin’s next halving approaches, block rewards will shrink, making solo mining even more of a long shot. Yet stories like this will continue to capture imaginations and sustain the decentralized ethos. Regulators and institutional players should note: Bitcoin’s design still allows for unpredictable, outsized outcomes that challenge centralized assumptions. For now, two lucky miners are celebrating a windfall that most will never see—proof that in Bitcoin, fortune can favor the bold, however small.
